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发布时间 : 星期一 文章关于金字塔集资的思考以阿尔巴尼亚为案例更新完毕开始阅读8e461511c281e53a5802ff21

12月 2月 4月 6月 8月 10月 12月 2月 4月 6月 8月 10月 12月 1995 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 1997 广义107,4112,2116,5122,7132,1143,6154,5154,2161,2173,9180,1188,1198,5货币 50 96 64 67 67 26 52 51 05 68 70 90 47 现41,9042,8945,8549,7851,4548,2347,8151,9463,4575,7477,4470,3772,72金 存款(a+b) a.活期存款 列克存款 国有企业 合资企业 私营4,970 4,419 4,186 6,227 6,479 企业 本国1,305 1,479 1,571 1,608 2,404 3,367 2,179 居民 外币11,5912,3413,2613,2717,2024,0421,0318,1017,0619,0416,3218,2518,36存款* 国有6,544 6,774 7,080 7,391 6,955 7,039 5,216 5,780 5,742 6,140 5,766 7,288 7,151 企业 合资企业 私营 524 3 7 4 9 6 0 3 1 1 6 1 6 6 766 857 826 817 726 627 15,8131,0828,5322,4016,2711,867 2 0 9 2 3 162 169 174 178 195 172 227 133 140 122 124 138 131 28,9329,2929,3931,3636,4152,9463,6256,4249,3244,8237,7637,6837,289 8 7 7 7 8 4 2 5 4 8 5 2 65,5469,4070,7172,9780,7095,39106,7102,397,7598,22102,7117,8125,63 5 1 9 7 6 37 05 5 2 21 10 66 6 1 4 8 9 0 5 7 0 6 9 9 6 17,3416,9516,1318,0819,2128,9042,5938,3232,2625,7821,4419,4218,946 0 3 8 1 8 0 1 3 2 6 9 6 10,9010,8810,2010,0710,139 3 1 6 3 9,552 9,103 8,892 8,856 8,563 8,642 9,796 9,892 8,769 8,294 549 496 543 627 455 645 526 473 429 482 61 2,820 2,955 3,344 3,201 7,874 14,4313,028 1 8,649 8,270 9,256 7,209 7,784 7,876 企业 本国1,705 2,184 2,291 2,191 1,834 1,936 2,341 3,027 2,523 3,177 2,917 2,702 2,699 居民 b.定期存款 列克存款 国有企业 合资企业 私营企业 本国居民 外币存款* 国有1,716 1,750 1,752 1,766 1,644 1,637 1,685 1,380 1,401 1,525 1,456 1,842 1,894 企业 合资企业 私营企业 本国5,733 6,534 6,916 6,951 6,738 6,540 7,810 居民 现金月-64 62 65 68 64 51 45 11,4611,6114,2013,8614,2413,972 6 4 0 0 5 969 1,150 1,155 1,100 1,093 162 3,321 3,578 3,465 1,789 190 503 1,705 69 69 53 55 54 54 57 59 53 56 64 184 261 8,487 9,503 9,876 9,872 9,529 8,393 12,8716,4716,5317,5715,5716,7617,833 9 5 4 0 9 5 27,6530,0030,8331,1431,5829,6827,2728,4230,5035,7349,3163,2870,479 7 5 2 6 7 5 2 8 8 8 1 5 459 598 603 598 3,175 4,369 2,966 981 1,387 81 65 75 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36,6040,1041,3141,6144,2942,4443,1145,8848,4353,3964,9580,1288,384 7 4 2 0 9 4 2 0 3 3 5 4 28,1130,6031,4331,7434,7634,0530,2429,4031,8935,8149,8363,3570,547 4 8 0 1 8 0 3 5 9 8 6 9 51 65 77 75 60 58 存款比例 *:按照1996年12月末的汇率换算为列克。

资料来源:根据Jarvis,C.(2000)和IMF(1998)整理得出。 注释:

[1]C.Kindleberger,Manias,Panics and Crowds:“A History of Financial Crises”,New York:Basic Books.

[2]O. Lippert,“The Underground Economy:Global Evidences of its Size and Impact,”Vancouver:Fraser Institute.

[3]IMF(2001):http://www.imf.org/data/countrydate/albania,2001年4月22日.

[4]Bank of Albania(2001):http://www.bank of albania.org/annualreport/1998,2001年4月22日。

[5]D.M.Nuti,“European Response to the Transition:Aid,Trade Access,Enlargement,”Economics of Transition,4.

[6]杜厚文:《世界经济概论》,中国人民大学出版社1996年版。

[7]IMF(1998),World Economic Outlook:May 1998 Washington D.C.:IMF.

[8]C.Jarvis,“The Rise and Fall of Pyramid Schemes in Albania”,IMF Staff Papers,1.

[9]IMF(1998),World Economic Outlook:May 1998 Washington D.C.,IMF.

[10]R.Bonis et al.“Crises and Bailouts of Bank and Countries:linkages,Analogies and Differences”,Journal of World Economy,May,2001.

主要参考文献

1.Bank of Albania: http:

//www.bankofalbania.org/an-nualreport/1998,2001年4月22日

2.Bonis, R. et al. (1999),“Crises and Bailouts ofBanks and Countries:Linkages,Analogies and Dif-ferences”,Journal ofWorld Economy, May. 3.IMF,World Economic Outlook:May1998. Wash-ington D.C.: IMF.

4.IMF: http://www.imf.org/data/countrydata/albania,2001年4月22日

5.Jarvis, C. (2000),“The Rise and Fall ofPyramidSchemes in Albania”, IMF Staff Papers, No.1.

6.Kindleberger, C. (1978),“Manias,Panics andCrowds:AHistory ofFinancial Crises”, New York:Basic Books.

7.Lippert, O. (1997),“The Underground Economy:Global Evidences ofitsSize andImpact”, Vancouver:Fraser institute.

8.Nuti, D.M. (1996),“European Response to theTransition:“Aid,Trade Access,Enlargement”,Economics of Transition, No.4.

作者简介:危素华,武汉大学商学院经济系99级研究生。

通讯地址:武汉大学商学院经济系99级研究生。

责任编辑:张 敏

Pyramid Schemes:The Albanian Experience

Wei Suhua

The origin of pyramid schemes can be traced back to the early 18th century. At the beginning of 1997, Albania was plunged into economic and political turmoil with the collapse of its pyramid scheme mania. The scenario was a result caused by Albania’s ineffective banking system, unregulated informal creditmarket, and the absence of competent legal framework and dubious ties between the government and some private enterprise. Utilizing indicators such as changes in money supplies,we can measure the actual impact of pyramid schemes of Albania on its macroeconomics. In the mean time, it should be noticed thatthe prevention, cleanup and newvariations of pyramid schemes deserve further attention.

Key words:Pyramid Schemes; Albania; Money Supply