发布时间 : 星期一 文章2016缇庤禌E棰樺弬鑰冪瓟妗?- 鐧惧害鏂囧簱更新完毕开始阅读9f36d621ba0d4a7303763aaa
Team # 52766
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52766
Problem Chosen
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E
2016MCM/ICM
Summary Sheet
In order to predict the water scarcity and optimize the configuration reasonably, we analyze the situation of water scarcity by establishing a mathematical model, and propose the feasible suggestions on optimization. All the work is based on the sufficient data we collect.
Firstly, the local situation of water scarcity is estimated by introducing the water lacking rate index. Secondly, the local water consumption is predicted from personal living, industry, agriculture and ecology. Meanwhile, the local water consumption is predicted through establishing a compound model which based on an improved Logistic Model and the statistical regression analysis. Thirdly, the Gray Prediction Metabolism Model is used for predicting the amount of local water supply. At last, we comprehensively analyze the experimental results, and predict the ability of water supply in this local area.
To verify the availability of the model, we choose the North China as the object of study. We conclude that this area is seriously scarce before 2010 on the basis of mass data. The water scarcity will steadily remit and reach balance in 2025. This is due to China has finished the South-to-North Water Diversion and the North China gains large water resources from outside. The results call inside with the truth, so the model is reliable.
Then we try to optimize the water supplying and demanding structure in the North China, so that it can realize the internal self-sufficiency. We use analytic
hierarchy process (AHP) to assess the four schemes of water storage, water transfer, wastewater treatment and desalination from four aspects of timeliness, sustainability, economic, environmental benefits, so a more scientific water supplying system is developed. Finally, by means of adjusting the industrial structure, optimizing the mode of agricultural irrigation and improving the water conservation awareness of citizens, we propose a water resources allocation model to optimize the water supply system in the North China. In this way, the water scarcity in the North China can be solved five years ahead of the original schedule.
Key words
Water scarcity; water lacking rate index;improved Logistic Model;Gray Prediction Metabolism Model; statistical regression; analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Team # 52766
Contents
1 INTRODUCTION & BACKGROUNDS ..................................................................................................... 1 2 PROBLEM ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Problem Restatement .................................................................................................................. 1 2.2 Problem solving.......................................................................................................................... 2 3 ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................................................... 2 4 NOTATIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 3 5 BASIC MODEL ..................................................................................................................................... 3 5.1 Model of the water consumption ................................................................................................ 3
5.1.1 Compound population Model based on Logistic Model ..................................................................... 4 5.1.2 Model of Industrial water consumption............................................................................................... 5 5.1.3 Model of total water consumption of a region..................................................................................... 6
5.2 Model of the Gray Metabolism Model GM (1, 1) ....................................................................... 6
5.2.1 Principle of common Gray GM (1, 1) Model ...................................................................................... 6 5.2.2 Principle of Gray Metabolism Model GM (1, 1)[2] .............................................................................. 8 5.2.3 Accuracy testing .................................................................................................................................. 8
5.3 Model of water supply capacity of a region ............................................................................... 9 5.4 Strengths & Weakness .............................................................................................................. 10 6 CHOOSE A REGION TO ANALYZE ........................................................................................................ 10 6.1 Brief introduction ..................................................................................................................... 10 6.2 Physical scarcity: ..................................................................................................................... 11 6.3 Economical scarcity: ................................................................................................................ 12 7 PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE NORTH CHINA .................................................................................... 12 7.1 Model of water consumption in North China. .......................................................................... 12 7.2 Water supply model in the North China ................................................................................... 17 7.3 The comprehensive evaluation to the future water resources in the North China .................... 18 7.4 Strengths and Weaknesses ........................................................................................................ 21 8 OPTIMIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION ......................................................................... 21 8.1 Optimization of water supply allocation .................................................................................. 21
8.1.1 Construct the model of hierarchical structure .................................................................................... 21 8.1.2 Construction of comparison matrix of target-criterion layer. ............................................................ 22 8.1.3 Construction of comparison matrix criterion - target layer................................................................ 23 8.1.4 Total sorts of hierarchy and consistency check ................................................................................. 27 8.1.5 Interpretation of result ....................................................................................................................... 28
8.2Optimization of water consumption allocation ......................................................................... 29
8.2.1 Construction of water resources allocation model ............................................................................. 30 8.2.2 Main constraint equations ................................................................................................................. 30 8.2.3 Model Solution .................................................................................................................................. 32
CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 34 FURTHER DISCUSSIONS ........................................................................................................................ 34 REFERENCE ......................................................................................................................................... 34 APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................................... 35
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StrategyofConquering Thirst
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1 Introduction & Backgrounds
An effective plan of solving the water scarcity problem is crucial to human society. According to the United Nations, today more than one billion people lack access to safe, clean drinking water, and just 10 countries share 60 percent of the world’s natural, renewable water resources; what’s more, water use has been growing at twice the rate of population over the last century. A model of water scarcity of the world shows the serious situation. (See Figure 1)
Figure 1: the map of the world’s water scarcity
At the same time, our societal and economic growth is largely driven by the productive use of water. Actually, the world tripled its water use in the last 50 years alone. Our world population is increasing, yet we still share one water resource – and it’s limited. If we’re going to meet the agricultural, industrial and residential needs of this growing world, we must use our water in effective, efficient ways.
2 Problem Analysis
2.1 Problem Restatement
Develop a model that provides a measure of the ability that a region cab provide clean water to meet the needs of its population. Doing all this work with considering the dynamic nature of the factors that affect both supply and demand.
Pick one country or region where water is either heavily or moderately overloaded. Explain why and how water is scarce in that region.
Show what the water situation will be in 15 years, and predict how this situation impact the lives of citizens of this region. Design an intervention plan taking all the drivers of water scarcity into account according to the situation, to help with the water scarcity and optimizing the model.
Estimate the optimized model and predict the results.